International Amateur Radio Union
Region 1
Working for the future of amateur radio
Foresight Review Project
1. Introduction
This proposal has arisen from the debate on the future of amateur radio at the IARU Region 1 meeting in Davos, 2005. It is proposed that IARU region 1 (IARU R1) start a foresight project, running over the next 2 years, to conduct a series of discussions between interested parties throughout the region with the aim of reporting to the next IARU R1 conference in 2008.
2. Objectives of this project
- To promote a series of structured discussions and debate between IARU R1 societies and their radio amateur members with administrations, industry representatives, emergency services, education and local communities.
- To provide an opportunity for a new dialogue with potential and existing partners.
- To generate an overall view of those issues which will shape the amateur service and hence affect IARU R1 policy.
- To show to Administrations and international groups that the radio amateur service is thinking strategically about its direction and how it can provide the best service to its broader community.
- To identify examples of initiatives and best practice which can be transferred between societies.
3. Approach
IARU R1 is composed of a large group of societies each of which has specific local amateur radio issues, it is proposed therefore that this study be undertaken mostly by individual societies in their own country. The studies will take the form of discussions and interviews followed by a series of local workshops. Societies will interview leading individuals from, administrations, industry, emergency services, education and their local communities. IARU R1 will use these local interviews to form a more general view which will be supplemented with information from international sources. The structure of the questions and the briefing documents for these discussions and workshops will be prepared by a project steering group. This will facilitate collation of the results. The findings of the societies will be amalgamated into a region wide report by the project steering group. In short therefore the project should be viewed as an opportunity to have a structured discussion between the amateur radio community and the local or national organisations with which it interacts. The findings will be used to help other societies with similar opportunities and help shape IARU R1 policy.
4. Factors to be considered.
4.1 Demography. The amateur radio population in Northern Europe is ageing. Some studies have put the average age of radio amateurs as high as 55-60 years old, made up almost completely of males. Yet informal surveys of this group have shown that they became interested in amateur radio when they were between 12 and 20 years old. Longer life projections (up to 30 years) are being made for the 55-60 year person and this may only serve to propagate the idea that ‘amateur radio is an old man’s pastime’.
However it is surely true that amateur radio is one of the few pastimes which is accessible to all ages, to those who are physically challenged and to those from all social levels and walks of life.
A recent review of what motivates young people about new interests found that, travel, adventure, meeting people from different ethnic backgrounds, and communicating with a multicultural world, were all important. All of these can be easily be experienced through amateur radio.
4.2 Environmental Concerns are increasing dramatically, questions are even being asked about the health effects of exposure to all sorts of electromagnetic radiation. Does this mean that amateur radio will be seen as ‘risky’?. At the same time there are more and more EMC problems, both inbound and outbound, which limit freedom to practice amateur radio and might be important in as a barrier to new entrants.
Other more insidious threats include those related to planning and social standing in the community.
4.3 Technological Change. There has been a very significant shift from analogue to digital, HF to UHF and microwave. These have tended to demystify and make accessible to the general population, a communication capability which would have been inconceivable a few years ago. This is now taken for granted – even by radio amateurs! However there are serious problems in most countries in finding the personnel to engineer and maintain these communication systems. The systems themselves are so dependant on other utilities like power and control that they are quite vulnerable. The cellular system and the Internet both fall into this category but this fact seems to be poorly appreciated by many people.
4.4 Spectrum Pressure. The realisation that commercial companies are willing to pay large sums for access to spectrum has led some countries to consider the potential financial value of the amateur spectrum. One effect of this is that obtaining exclusive allocations in the microwave spectrum is almost impossible. The concept of spectrum sharing for radio amateurs is virtually unworkable since spectrum sharing always favours the strong, strong either in the commercial or political sense or just strong in terms of erp. This is particularly true in the broadcast spectrum. Amateur radio is a weak signal service.
4.5 Resistance to Change. Recent changes in amateur radio seem to indicate that radio amateurs are rather conservative and resistant to change, for example, the Morse debate, the lack of initiative in exploiting 2.4GHz systems for broadband data networks and the undercurrent concerning the skill and competency of the newcomers.
However there has also been a strong pick up of new digital modes, in the linking of amateur radio to the Internet and in the enthusiasm to help new entrants become licenced.
Amateur radio is a voluntary activity and therefore a open expression of ideas is to be encouraged provided that there is the freedom to try new ideas and exploit any opportunities which might arise.
4.6 Looking Forward. Thinking about the future is not easy. However it can be encouraged by selecting participants with the right mental attitude and who are well informed as to what is expected of them. Some of the obstacles therefore to this project include, resistance to adopt new ideas, limited vision, prejudice and ignorance. This latter might well be encountered in discussions with groups who are outside the amateur radio community. The selection of participants and the briefing material for this project needs to bear this in mind.
5. Participants
Views must be sought from all of the communities with which radio amateurs interact. This should include administrations, local communities, schools and universities, educational departments, youth organisations, emergency services, community services, military and defence. In short any group who have, or might have, a view on longer term relations with us.
5.1 Telecommunications Administration – Most national Administrations are looking for new ways to increase their effectiveness and reduce their costs.
This is already leading to
- the dropping of services such as spectrum monitoring,
- the selling off spectrum to the highest bidder,
- being unable to see the wider implications when new technologies are proposed such as UWB,
- fewer staff being employed,
- a falling off in the number of radio amateurs in key positions as the requirements for technical understanding falls.
How they see a future radio amateur service will depend critically on our ability to communicate our worth or value to administrations. Their ignorance or ambivalence could seriously limit our growth.
This project will provide an opportunity to do this. Administrations have a key role in encouraging the growth of amateur radio through enlightened policy.
5.2 Emergency Services. The role of amateur radio in emergency situations is well documented following recent natural disasters. In these cases it has been both the skills which amateurs have as well as their equipment. However not all governments see the necessity to help train or exploit amateur radio in emergency situations. These relationships need to be clarified in the light of any new ideas emergency services might have. International agencies concerned with relief need to be consulted. The ICEC-2006 Conference is a key activity in this.
5.3 Industry. Industry has traditionally had a positive relationship with amateur radio, but this was in an era when spectrum competition was less intense. However it is probably the availability of a skilled, potential workforce which is of most interest.
The big growth areas such as cellular systems, wireless broadband etc have led to a major shortage of relevant skills in radio technology, video systems and real time software. Amateur radio has a good record in training and education but is the balance of interests in amateur radio matched to industry’s needs?
Technology directions and its impact on innovation should be discussed since it might be possible to shift both the training and encouragement of experiment into new areas.
It is also not appreciated that the freedom to undertake speculative scientific and technological research in communications is becoming more limited. Not only is industrial research more constrained and focussed these days, but the availability of spectrum for such experiments is more difficult to find. Amateur spectrum is one of the few areas left where such research can be undertaken, a threat and an opportunity.
5.4 Military and Defence. Again this is a group with whom amateur radio has enjoyed a good working relationship. Their main interest is still likely to the skills and training afforded by amateur radio.
5.5 Schools, Universities and Education. Amateur radio is being used to attract children into technology and science with hands on demonstration and practical skill development. There is plenty of evidence that amateur radio can motivate interest and is seen as technology ‘fun’. As many amateurs had their interest awakened in this way this should be a priority area for the future. In particular how can our formal training and examination processes be integrated into the school curriculum and what topics are likely to be in that curriculum in the future.
Educational administrators have to be sold on the potential for amateur radio in the education of science and technology and the volunteer resources available through the amateur radio movement.
As all levels of licence can be attained by school children then amateur radio can offer a distinctive qualification which can enhance career potential. Parents please note.
Amateur radio skills are valued by industry and the possession of an amateur licence is a real qualification. Amateur radio could form part of university course in electronics and communication as well as providing an opportunity for free-ranging experimentation and technical innovation.
5.6 Amateur radio clubs. Clubs, national, specialised and local, exist in most counties where there are numbers of radio amateurs. They provide information, training and social interaction. They can organise support to the local community. They might be the first point of contact for newcomers and the image of amateur radio they present is therefore critical. Local administrations will often deal with them on local issues, some of which might affect the development of amateur radio, such as planning.
5.7 Individual Radio Amateurs. They have to be encouraged to think more about where we are going. In particular what value does/could amateur radio offer to the wider community and what are the obstacles to growth? What might be the topics and activities for relaxation and fun in the future which an involvement in the amateur radio could bring?
6. Timescales and Organisation (Revised April 2006)
Much of the work for this project will be undertaken by participating societies.
To minimise the cost to themselves opportunity should be taken to link the project to other activities e.g. club meetings, conventions etc. Most societies have regular meetings with their administration and these will offer opportunities to conduct interviews, likewise with industry and schools. The timescales have deliberately been extended to allow these opportunities to be used. This means that there is a special responsibility on the local project leader to work and communicate to achieve this.
Most of this project will need to be done by e mail. A reflector and webpage will need to be established, preferably under the IARU R1 site.
April 2006 Project Approved
Steering Group recruitment. National Project Leaders identified..
Societies to identify and plan interviews.
Circulate IARU R1 society contacts for general information.
Identify societies which wish to participate.
Form project steering group. First meeting Q2/3 2006.
Publicity, general announcements.June Steering Group review at FHVN with national project leaders
Workshop programme plan for 2007
December Progress meeting. Report to EC.
2007 Workshop programme.
June Project Review FHVN, progress report to EC.
Q4 Synthesis meeting
2008 Q1. Preparation of final report.
Other key dates
WRC 2007 possibly some input, but it is already too late to make a significant impact
2008 IARU R1 Conference, Croatia, 2008.
7. Management
The project will be managed by a Steering Group comprising :-
Chair ( Dr Bob Whelan, G3PJT)
EC representative (Nikola Percin, 9A5W)
Industry representative (2?)
National Telecommunications Administrator
Radio Amateurs (2?)
Nominees for these positions will be sought as soon as the EC have approved this project.
The Steering Group will be responsible for :
Overall co-ordination and detailed planning.
Progress reports to EC
Guidance and support to participating societies, interview notes,
Publicity, especially international,
Budget and cost control,
Preparation of final report.
Each participating IARU society will be responsible for its local organisation.
This will include:
Nominees for its project leader.
Taking and reporting local interviews
Organising meetings and workshops
Local publicity.
Reporting to Steering Group
Communicating to and from Steering Group.
8. Finance (Revised Apr 2006).
It is proposed that a budget should be set aside for expenses for this project. It is recommended that each society should be responsible for its expenses in its own country.
The Steering Group will need two, one day meetings per year. There will be travel expenses and overnight and meeting room accommodation costs. Most day by day work will be done by e mail. The will be costs associated with the preparation of the final report since this should be available in printed form as well as electronic. Industry representatives will pay their own expenses. IARU R1 will fund special expenses specifically associated with the project.
On this basis the total number of meetings will be four, (2 in 2006, 2 in 2007). The estimated costs for these will be 30,000Euros. This figure will be revised when the composition of the Steering Group is finalised and the potential for linking to other meetings is known. Also the Chairman expects to be able to take advantage of his CEPT WGRA meetings to take additional meetings to progress the project but still may have to make some short visits to help individuals from time to time.
9. Conclusions.
This project will provide an important input to the policy planning and direction of amateur radio in IARU R1.
The Davos paper asserted that ‘The environment in which the amateur enjoys radio communication has changed dramatically over the last 5 years. Technical, commercial and political changes taken against a background of an ageing amateur population present IARU R1 with major challenges if it is to play its part in leading amateur radio into the future.’
The principles of undertaking such a project have already been accepted by IARU R1 member societies. Successful implementation will depend on the active participation of individuals from a number of different backgrounds and a positive and open approach to the points raised. The better informed people are, the better decisions they will make.